Taylor Fry

 

Gráinne McGuire

Senior Actuary

About Gráinne

Gráinne is an expert in liability valuations, dynamic financial analysis and statistical analysis of data.

Since joining Taylor Fry in 2002, Gráinne has built a reputation as an innovative statistical modeller, implementing practical solutions for a wide range of clients – from accident compensation schemes to medical indemnity insurers to government social welfare schemes.

Gráinne’s special interest is developing customised cutting-edge software to help her clients to transform their businesses and manage them better.

Experience

Prior to joining Taylor Fry, Gráinne was a post-doctoral research fellow at University of Reading and developed statistical models for the analysis of the relationships between different species using DNA data. She also provided statistical consultancy services to staff and research students within other departments of the university.

Since joining Taylor Fry, Gráinne has applied her statistical modelling skills to a number of actuarial and insurance projects.

Insurance Liability Valuation

Grainne has provided Insurance Liability Valuation advice to several major Australian accident compensation schemes, where her advanced statistical modelling has been applied to generate more accurate and robust valuation models.

Capital Modelling and Management

Gráinne is currently using her statistical modelling skills to design and implement a dynamic financial analysis tool for a major national accident compensation scheme. She is producing custom-built software to both simulate the complex future liabilities and capital needs of the scheme as well as monitor emerging experience.  A key part of the project is the transfer of knowledge and skills in order to ensure that the client can take over the running and on-going maintenance of the model.

Statistical Modelling

Gráinne has also applied statistical modelling to projects on insurance pricing and demand modelling for a large Australian personal lines insurer, and the estimation of risk margins for a large Australian insurer. In addition, she has also worked outside the bounds of traditional insurance work, carrying out a number of projects for government bodies on social welfare payments.

Publications

  • Loss reserving with GLMs: a case study by Greg Taylor and Gráinne McGuire. Casualty Actuarial Society 2004 Discussion Paper Program, 327 – 392 (Awarded the Michelbacher Prize of the Casualty Actuarial Society)
  • Individual claim modelling of CTP data, by Gráinne McGuire. Presented to the Accident Compensation Seminar of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia 2007
  • Asynchronous bootstrap to account for dependencies between lines of business in the estimation of loss reserve prediction error by Greg Taylor and Gráinne McGuire. North American Actuarial Journal, 11 (2007), 70-88
  • Building a reserving robot by Gráinne McGuire. Presented to the Biennial Convention of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia 2007.
  • Adaptive Reserving using Bayesian Revision for the Exponential Dispersion Family by Greg Taylor, and Gráinne McGuire. Variance(3), 2009.
  • Individual claim loss reserving conditioned by case estimates by Greg Taylor, Gráinne McGuire and James Sullivan. The Annals of Actuarial Science, 2009.
  • Stochastic Reserving in Non-Life Insurance, by Gráinne McGuire. Presented to the Society of Actuaries in Ireland, 2012

CONTACT Gráinne

Grainne.McGuire@taylorfry.com.au

Ireland

 

Areas of Expertise

  • Insurance Liability Valuation
  • Capital Modelling and Management
  • Statistical Modelling

Qualifications

  • Fellow of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia since 2005
  • Doctor of Philosophy in Statistics, University of Edinburgh (1999)
  • Bachelor of Science in Statistics, Heriot-Watt University (1995)

Professional Activities

  • Conference organiser for the Biennial Convention of the Institute of Actuaries of Australia 2007 and 2009